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Kim Ju-ae: successor or beloved daughter?

Kim Se-won
Kim Jong-un with daughter Kim Ju-ae (Source: KCNA)

Questions have resurfaced over whether Kim Ju-ae, the daughter of North Korean leader Kim Jong-un, is being groomed as his successor or not. 

When they appeared together at a Chinese military parade on September 3, speculation about whether she would one day be formally designated as his heir gained significant traction. 

But then, her absence from North Korea’s largest-ever nighttime military parade on October 10, held to mark the 80th anniversary of the founding of the ruling Korea Workers’ Party, reignited doubts. 

North Korea remains a deeply patriarchal society, analysts reminded themselves. The political power structure and the culture itself are male-centered. There is no precedent of a woman rising to the very top. 

Given this, the hypothesis that Kim Ju-ae is being positioned as the next leader may be an overly simplistic analysis that overlooks historical norms and the perceptions of the people.

Within the elite and among ordinary citizens, there exists a strong resistance to the idea of a female leader. As such, Kim Ju-ae’s emergence would likely face considerable political opposition. 

It may seem that in the absolute dictatorship he presides over, Kim can make his decision and remove anyone who doesn’t like it. But the fact is that North Korea’s leaders have always had to manage perception, maneuver around opposition and build support. This goes back to the decision by the founding leader, Kim Il-sung, to bequeath power to his son, Kim Jong-il. The establishment of a monarchy in this way was unheard of in the communist world and was opposed by many in North Korea as a betrayal of the revolution.

Again, after the death of Kim Jong-il in 2011, his son Kim Jong-un spent over a decade consolidating power by eliminating potential threats, including his uncle Jang Song-thaek, in order to overcome the lack of preparation and his consequently weak power base. 

This process of power consolidation revealed how closed and fiercely competitive the political system actually is. In this context, succession is not determined by bloodline alone. It requires political acumen, a solid base, and the support of the elite. 

We may assume that there would be significant political resistance if Kim Ju-ae were positioned as successor. 

For these reasons, it is still too early to present her as a successor. Being the child of the supreme leader alone is not sufficient grounds for succession. It appears premature to say she meets the conditions required.

Her repeated public appearances may be part of a long-term strategy to gradually instill her image as the next leader among the populace. But this is not the only possible explanation. 

Considering Kim Jong-un’s own childhood, during which he lived abroad and had to conceal his identity, he may be trying to give his daughter the “official affection” and power he himself was denied. 

In other words, what we are seeing may be less about politics and more about a father’s desire to present his beloved child to the public. 

Some observers speculate that the existence of a son may eventually be revealed. If one does exist, it is likely that Ju-ae would take on a secondary leadership role to him, similar to that of her aunt Kim Yo-jong, and hold a key party position and wield political influence. 

Ultimately, the current debate over Kim Ju-ae as successor may simply reflect Kim Jong-un’s desire to attract international attention or to express his affection for his daughter.

Kim Se-won
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